Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jon Fitch
oldest →W
vs Ben Saunders · Mar 10W
vs Thiago Alves · Aug 10L
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Dec 11 Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jon FitchMetricDemian Maia
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.96Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jon FitchDemian Maia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jon Fitch(5 fights)Demian Maia(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +87.8|Blue -87.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jon FitchTargetDemian Maia
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:56Control
Round 2Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:11Control
Round 3Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:34
0Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:47Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
