Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chase Hooper threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chase Hooper (53.5%).
- Chase Hooper has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clay GuidaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Dec 21L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23 Chase Hooper
oldest →W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 24L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25L
KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26W
SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clay GuidaMetricChase Hooper
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.37Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+1.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Clay GuidaChase Hooper
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clay Guida(10 fights)Chase Hooper(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -34.3|Blue +34.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +161.0|Blue -161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Clay GuidaTargetChase Hooper
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chase Hooper edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
