Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trey Waters has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam Patterson
oldest →W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26 Trey WatersW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Josh Quinlan · Apr 23W
vs Billy Ray Goff · May 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam PattersonMetricTrey Waters
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sam PattersonTrey Waters
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Patterson(7 fights)Trey Waters(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +59.7|Blue -59.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -294.0|Blue +294.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sam PattersonTargetTrey Waters
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sam Patterson edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
