Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demetrious Johnson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demetrious Johnson
oldest →W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18 Tim Elliott
oldest →W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demetrious JohnsonMetricTim Elliott
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.77Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demetrious JohnsonTim Elliott
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -8.9|Blue +8.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -434.0|Blue +434.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demetrious JohnsonTargetTim Elliott
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
4
Demetrious Johnson rounds
Round 1Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control1:20
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:21Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control3:52
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control3:18
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control4:10
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control3:56
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:31Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
