Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- AJ Fletcher threatens submissions; Themba Gorimbo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Themba Gorimbo has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors AJ Fletcher (52.9%).
- Themba Gorimbo has a 25cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
AJ FletcherL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 22L
SUBvs Bryan Battle · Sep 23 Themba GorimboL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25L
DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
AJ FletcherMetricThemba Gorimbo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.25Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
AJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
AJ Fletcher(4 fights)Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +6.2|Blue -6.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
AJ FletcherTargetThemba Gorimbo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control3:02
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 2Themba Gorimbo edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:19
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
