Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Rivera has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francisco Rivera has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edwin FigueroaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Michael McDonald · Mar 11W
KOvs Jason Reinhardt · Aug 11W
vs Alex Caceres · Feb 12L
vs Roland Delorme · Jun 13 Francisco RiveraL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14W
KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15L
SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15L
vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edwin FigueroaMetricFrancisco Rivera
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.49Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Edwin FigueroaFrancisco Rivera
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edwin Figueroa(6 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -5.0|Blue +5.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +101.0|Blue -101.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Edwin FigueroaTargetFrancisco Rivera
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:34
Knockdowns1
24Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:06Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Francisco Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:33
Knockdowns0
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
