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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Steven Asplund won · Decision R3

Elo1526

Elo1475

Steven AsplundvsGuilherme PatUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · Saturday, August 8, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Steven Asplund won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Steven Asplund

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Steven Asplund at -297 American odds · hypothetical only

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Steven Asplund

Red Corner

Guilherme Pat

Blue Corner

-297

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1526

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'6"

198.12 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steven Asplund

oldest →

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Dec 25

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 26

latest

Guilherme Pat

oldest →

vs Allen Frye Jr. · Dec 25

DECvs Thomas Petersen · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steven AsplundMetricGuilherme Pat

10.05

Strikes / min

2.70

6.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.03

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.41Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap+0.67

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steven Asplund(3 fights)Guilherme Pat(3 fights)

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steven AsplundTargetGuilherme Pat

By target zone

55% acc · 77%

Head

45% acc · 56%

82% acc · 14%

Body

93% acc · 29%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

43% acc · 41%

Distance

55% acc · 80%

79% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

91% acc · 30%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steven Asplund rounds

even

Guilherme Pat rounds

Round 1Steven Asplund edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control2:20

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Guilherme Pat edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:16

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Steven Asplund edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:08

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 109

Sig Strikes

45 / 76

57%

Sig Str %

61.3%

134 / 180

Total Strikes

72 / 103

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:44

Ctrl Time

2:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Guilherme Pat	13 / 17	26 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Steven Asplund	38 / 49	65 / 79	0 / 0	0
2	Guilherme Pat	18 / 30	24 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Steven Asplund	12 / 32	27 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Guilherme Pat	14 / 29	22 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Steven Asplund	16 / 28	42 / 54	0 / 1	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Steven Asplund

Odds

-297

Market-implied probability

Steven Asplund 72%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Steven Asplund (model pick · research)$134

Guilherme Pat$340

72% market-implied · model 52% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 19, 2026, 4:16 AM UTC · never rewritten

Steven Asplund

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3

Guilherme Pat

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights3