Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chael Sonnen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Chael Sonnen has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Chael Sonnen has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mauricio RuaL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20L
KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23 Chael SonnenL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Brian Stann · Oct 11W
vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12L
KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12L
KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mauricio RuaMetricChael Sonnen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.78Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+1.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mauricio RuaChael Sonnen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Chael Sonnen(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -42.8|Blue +42.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mauricio RuaTargetChael Sonnen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chael Sonnen edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:50
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
