Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25 Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edson BarbozaMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Edson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edson Barboza(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -60.8|Blue +60.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.7|Blue +2.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Edson BarbozaTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
