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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Germaine de Randamie won · SUB

Elo1497

Elo1496

Germaine de RandamievsJulianna PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Germaine de Randamie won

SUB

Model Prediction: Julianna Pena wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Germaine de Randamie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julianna Pena at +122 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Germaine de Randamie has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Germaine de Randamie

Red Corner

Julianna Pena

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+122

(45%)

1497

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Germaine de RandamieL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anna Elmose · May 16

vs Holly Holm · Feb 17

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 18

vs Amanda Nunes · Dec 19

vs Norma Dumont · Apr 24

latest

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Germaine de RandamieMetricJulianna Pena

2.57

Strikes / min

3.10

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.56

65%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.70

65%

Takedown defense

24%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Germaine de RandamieJulianna Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Germaine de Randamie(10 fights)Julianna Pena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Germaine de RandamieTargetJulianna Pena

By target zone

37% acc · 86%

Head

24% acc · 70%

100% acc · 14%

Body

70% acc · 26%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

38% acc · 86%

Distance

24% acc · 67%

67% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Germaine de Randamie rounds

even

Julianna Pena rounds

Round 1Germaine de Randamie edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:48

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:41Control

Round 3Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 91

Sig Strikes

27 / 91

48.3%

Sig Str %

32.3%

57 / 119

Total Strikes

58 / 125

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

5:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julianna Pena	8 / 43	12 / 47	1 / 1	0
1	Germaine de Randamie	20 / 58	23 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Julianna Pena	11 / 23	30 / 43	1 / 2	0
2	Germaine de Randamie	6 / 9	19 / 29	0 / 0	1
3	Julianna Pena	8 / 25	16 / 35	1 / 3	0
3	Germaine de Randamie	11 / 24	15 / 29	0 / 0	1

Germaine de Randamie

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12