Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Islam Makhachev has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21 Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nik LentzMetricIslam Makhachev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.19evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nik LentzIslam Makhachev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nik Lentz(10 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -148.8|Blue +148.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nik LentzTargetIslam Makhachev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:06
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:31Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:51Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:24
23Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:31Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
