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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dione Barbosa won · Decision R3

Elo1542

Elo1492

Dione BarbosavsMelissa GattoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Dione Barbosa won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Dione Barbosa

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Dione Barbosa at -138 American odds · hypothetical only

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Style matchupDione Barbosa: WrestlervsMelissa Gatto: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Melissa Gatto wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Dione Barbosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dione Barbosa has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dione Barbosa

Red Corner

Melissa Gatto

Blue Corner

-138

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1542

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dione Barbosa

oldest →

vs Ernesta Kareckaite · May 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jul 24

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Apr 25

vs Karine Silva · Aug 25

SUBvs Anna Melisano · Jul 26

latest

Melissa Gatto

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · Aug 21

KOvs Sijara Eubanks · Dec 21

vs Tracy Cortez · May 22

vs Ariane da Silva · Jul 23

KOvs Tamires Vidal · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dione BarbosaMetricMelissa Gatto

2.21

Strikes / min

3.47

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

64%

Strike defense

54%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.77

63%

Takedown defense

58%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dione BarbosaMelissa Gatto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dione Barbosa(6 fights)Melissa Gatto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -455.0|Blue +455.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dione BarbosaTargetMelissa Gatto

By target zone

36% acc · 63%

Head

35% acc · 42%

75% acc · 30%

Body

60% acc · 27%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

83% acc · 30%

By position

33% acc · 53%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

71% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

82% acc · 30%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dione Barbosa rounds

even

Melissa Gatto rounds

Round 1Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:15

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 2Dione Barbosa edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:20

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 3Dione Barbosa edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:31

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 67

Sig Strikes

33 / 67

46%

Sig Str %

57.3%

108 / 154

Total Strikes

64 / 109

3 / 6

TDs

3 / 12

66.7%

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:06

Ctrl Time

4:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melissa Gatto	21 / 48	27 / 59	1 / 5	0
1	Dione Barbosa	16 / 37	35 / 58	0 / 3	0
2	Melissa Gatto	5 / 7	23 / 30	2 / 6	0
2	Dione Barbosa	9 / 20	34 / 51	2 / 2	0
3	Melissa Gatto	7 / 12	14 / 20	0 / 1	0
3	Dione Barbosa	5 / 10	39 / 45	1 / 1	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Dione Barbosa

Odds

-138

Market-implied probability

Dione Barbosa 55%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Dione Barbosa (model pick · research)$172

Melissa Gatto$210

55% market-implied · model 61% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Dione Barbosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Melissa Gatto

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6