Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Elijah Smith won · SUB R2

Elo1549

Elo1511

Elijah SmithvsSuYoung YouUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elijah Smith won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:04

Style matchupElijah Smith: WrestlervsSuYoung You: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Elijah Smith wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Elijah Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elijah Smith at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

SuYoung You enters on a 3-fight win streak.
SuYoung You has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Elijah Smith has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Elijah Smith

Red Corner

SuYoung You

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1549

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elijah SmithW2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · Feb 25

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Aug 25

latest

SuYoung YouW3 streak

oldest →

vs Baergeng Jieleyisi · Nov 24

vs AJ Cunningham · Mar 25

vs Xiao Long · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elijah SmithMetricSuYoung You

4.18

Strikes / min

2.15

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

46%

Strike defense

68%

2.98

TDs / 15 min

4.26

53%

Takedown defense

66%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elijah SmithSuYoung You

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elijah Smith(3 fights)SuYoung You(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.4|Blue -37.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elijah SmithTargetSuYoung You

By target zone

56% acc · 88%

Head

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 31%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

73% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elijah Smith rounds

even

SuYoung You rounds

Round 1SuYoung You edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:19

1Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 2Elijah Smith edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 27

Sig Strikes

3 / 3

55.5%

Sig Str %

100%

18 / 29

Total Strikes

21 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 8

—

TD %

28.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

2:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	SuYoung You	1 / 1	18 / 24	4 / 7	0
1	Elijah Smith	3 / 6	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	SuYoung You	2 / 2	3 / 3	0 / 1	0
2	Elijah Smith	13 / 21	13 / 21	0 / 0	1

Elijah Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

SuYoung You

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4