Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Omari Akhmedov
oldest →W
vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19W
vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19L
DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20W
SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricOmari Akhmedov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonOmari Akhmedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +266.0|Blue -266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetOmari Akhmedov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control3:06
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
