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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · SUB R3

Elo1454

Elo1443

Derek BrunsonvsDarren TillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Saturday, September 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:13

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Darren Till

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1454

Elo

1443

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Darren TillL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricDarren Till

3.51

Strikes / min

2.30

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

51%

Strike defense

56%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

0.55

85%

Takedown defense

69%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonDarren Till

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.8|Blue -10.8

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetDarren Till

By target zone

49% acc · 90%

Head

37% acc · 54%

100% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 31%

33% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

25% acc · 22%

Distance

45% acc · 73%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

88% acc · 27%

64% acc · 71%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Darren Till rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control2:57

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:56

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:30

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 84

Sig Strikes

26 / 50

47%

Sig Str %

50.3%

101 / 145

Total Strikes

28 / 53

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:23

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Till	7 / 16	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Derek Brunson	26 / 51	51 / 76	1 / 1	0
2	Darren Till	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Derek Brunson	6 / 13	37 / 45	1 / 3	0
3	Darren Till	14 / 24	15 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Derek Brunson	9 / 20	13 / 24	1 / 2	1

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11