Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ben Rothwell has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
- Matt Mitrione has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ben Rothwell
oldest →W
KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20L
vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20W
SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21 Matt Mitrione
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ben RothwellMetricMatt Mitrione
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.92Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ben RothwellMatt Mitrione
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +138.0|Blue -138.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +99.0|Blue -99.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ben RothwellTargetMatt Mitrione
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:02
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
