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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · SUB R2

Elo1429

Elo1385

Donald CerronevsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:49

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1429

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricEvan Dunham

4.41

Strikes / min

5.33

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

53%

Strike defense

61%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.82

73%

Takedown defense

79%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.8|Blue -43.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -102.0|Blue +102.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

40% acc · 59%

Head

20% acc · 50%

75% acc · 28%

Body

86% acc · 25%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

42% acc · 50%

Distance

25% acc · 63%

47% acc · 22%

Clinch

69% acc · 38%

64% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:26

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:53

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 67

Sig Strikes

24 / 72

46.5%

Sig Str %

33.5%

34 / 69

Total Strikes

29 / 77

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 4

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:19

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	14 / 35	18 / 39	0 / 2	0
1	Donald Cerrone	22 / 44	23 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Evan Dunham	10 / 37	11 / 38	0 / 2	0
2	Donald Cerrone	10 / 23	11 / 24	1 / 2	1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17