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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Oban Elliott won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1491

Bassil HafezvsOban ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Oban Elliott won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:40

Style matchupBassil Hafez: WrestlervsOban Elliott: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Oban Elliott wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Oban Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Oban Elliott at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Oban Elliott has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Bassil Hafez

Red Corner

Oban Elliott

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bassil Hafez

oldest →

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Jul 23

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 24

latest

Oban ElliottL2 streak

oldest →

vs Val Woodburn · Feb 24

vs Preston Parsons · Jul 24

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Jun 25

SUBvs Jonathan Micallef · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bassil HafezMetricOban Elliott

3.71

Strikes / min

3.62

5.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

41%

Strike defense

61%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

1.52

50%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.97Δ 3.35 — meaningful gap+1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bassil HafezOban Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bassil Hafez(3 fights)Oban Elliott(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bassil HafezTargetOban Elliott

By target zone

29% acc · 67%

Head

37% acc · 34%

22% acc · 8%

Body

67% acc · 25%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

82% acc · 42%

By position

33% acc · 96%

Distance

51% acc · 85%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bassil Hafez rounds

even

Oban Elliott rounds

Round 1Oban Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:06

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Oban Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Oban Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 70

Sig Strikes

65 / 117

34%

Sig Str %

59.3%

24 / 70

Total Strikes

66 / 118

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Oban Elliott	25 / 49	26 / 50	0 / 0
1	Bassil Hafez	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	Oban Elliott	29 / 53	29 / 53	0 / 0
2	Bassil Hafez	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 0
3	Oban Elliott	11 / 15	11 / 15	0 / 0
3	Bassil Hafez	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0

Bassil Hafez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Oban Elliott

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5