Middleweight

3 Rounds

Bartosz Fabinski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1399

Elo1360

Bartosz FabinskivsGarreth McLellanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Bartosz Fabinski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Garreth McLellan wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Bartosz Fabinski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garreth McLellan at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bartosz Fabinski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Garreth McLellan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bartosz Fabinski has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Garreth McLellan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bartosz Fabinski

Red Corner

Garreth McLellan

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1399

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bartosz FabinskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Hector Urbina · Nov 15

vs Emil Meek · Jul 18

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Nov 18

SUBvs Andre Muniz · Sep 20

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 21

latest

Garreth McLellanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bubba Bush · Oct 15

KOvs Magnus Cedenblad · May 16

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 16

KOvs Paulo Costa · Mar 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bartosz FabinskiMetricGarreth McLellan

2.23

Strikes / min

3.56

1.46

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

51%

Strike defense

45%

7.10

TDs / 15 min

1.15

80%

Takedown defense

34%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bartosz Fabinski(6 fights)Garreth McLellan(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.3|Blue -39.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bartosz FabinskiTargetGarreth McLellan

By target zone

52% acc · 29%

Head

20% acc · 15%

96% acc · 54%

Body

100% acc · 23%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 62%

By position

40% acc · 10%

Distance

20% acc · 15%

95% acc · 90%

Clinch

100% acc · 85%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bartosz Fabinski rounds

even

Garreth McLellan rounds

Round 1Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control4:05

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control3:22

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns4

Control3:30

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 53

Sig Strikes

13 / 21

76%

Sig Str %

59%

116 / 132

Total Strikes

51 / 59

10 / 11

TDs

0 / 4

93.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:57

Ctrl Time

2:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Garreth McLellan	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0	1
1	Bartosz Fabinski	12 / 18	40 / 48	4 / 5	0
2	Garreth McLellan	7 / 9	17 / 19	0 / 3	0
2	Bartosz Fabinski	10 / 13	43 / 48	2 / 2	0
3	Garreth McLellan	3 / 6	31 / 34	0 / 1	1
3	Bartosz Fabinski	19 / 22	33 / 36	4 / 4	0

Bartosz Fabinski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Garreth McLellan

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5