Featherweight

3 Rounds

Diego Nunes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Bart PalaszewskivsDiego NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Diego Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Nunes wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Diego Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Nunes at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Bart Palaszewski

Red Corner

Diego Nunes

Blue Corner

+177

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-192

(66%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bart PalaszewskiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Griffin · Oct 11

vs Hatsu Hioki · Feb 12

SUBvs Cole Miller · Apr 13

latest

Diego NunesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Brown · Jan 11

vs Kenny Florian · Jun 11

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Dec 11

vs Dennis Siver · Apr 12

vs Nik Lentz · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bart PalaszewskiMetricDiego Nunes

2.67

Strikes / min

2.72

3.97

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

57%

Strike defense

58%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.18

53%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.30Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bart PalaszewskiDiego Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bart Palaszewski(4 fights)Diego Nunes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.1|Blue +138.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bart PalaszewskiTargetDiego Nunes

By target zone

18% acc · 43%

Head

34% acc · 59%

57% acc · 11%

Body

60% acc · 10%

71% acc · 46%

Leg

90% acc · 31%

By position

29% acc · 89%

Distance

42% acc · 67%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

49% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bart Palaszewski rounds

even

Diego Nunes rounds

Round 1Diego Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Diego Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:12

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 3Diego Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 119

Sig Strikes

61 / 137

32%

Sig Str %

47%

45 / 128

Total Strikes

68 / 148

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

5:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Nunes	19 / 30	24 / 37	1 / 1	0
1	Bart Palaszewski	2 / 6	9 / 13	0 / 0	2
2	Diego Nunes	15 / 37	17 / 41	2 / 2	0
2	Bart Palaszewski	13 / 38	14 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Diego Nunes	27 / 70	27 / 70	0 / 3	0
3	Bart Palaszewski	22 / 75	22 / 75	0 / 0	0

Bart Palaszewski

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Diego Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6