← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1493

Barb HonchakvsLauren MurphyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBarb Honchak: Pressure fightervsLauren Murphy: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lauren Murphy at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Barb Honchak has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lauren Murphy has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Barb Honchak

Red Corner

Lauren Murphy

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1366

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Barb Honchak

oldest →

KOvs Roxanne Modafferi · Jul 18

latest

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Barb HonchakMetricLauren Murphy

4.04

Strikes / min

3.94

4.67

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

66%

Strike defense

56%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.09

Takedown defense

67%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.63evenly matched on net striking-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Barb HonchakLauren Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Barb Honchak(2 fights)Lauren Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.7|Blue +126.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +47.4|Blue -47.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Barb HonchakTargetLauren Murphy

By target zone

25% acc · 77%

Head

27% acc · 83%

60% acc · 4%

Body

50% acc · 3%

87% acc · 18%

Leg

89% acc · 14%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Barb Honchak rounds

even

Lauren Murphy rounds

Round 1Barb Honchak edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Barb Honchak edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:17

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:04

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 236

Sig Strikes

59 / 197

27.3%

Sig Str %

31.3%

75 / 241

Total Strikes

77 / 222

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lauren Murphy	27 / 104	27 / 104	0 / 0	0
1	Barb Honchak	32 / 111	32 / 111	0 / 0	0
2	Lauren Murphy	27 / 79	27 / 79	1 / 1	0
2	Barb Honchak	33 / 96	34 / 98	0 / 0	0
3	Lauren Murphy	5 / 14	23 / 39	1 / 1	0
3	Barb Honchak	6 / 29	9 / 32	0 / 0	2

Barb Honchak

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights2

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15