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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Baisangur Susurkaev won · SUB R2

Elo1559

Elo1462

Baisangur SusurkaevvsEric NolanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Baisangur Susurkaev won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:01

Style matchupBaisangur Susurkaev: WrestlervsEric Nolan: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Baisangur Susurkaev wins(79.0%)

Actual result: Baisangur Susurkaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Baisangur Susurkaev at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Baisangur Susurkaev threatens submissions; Eric Nolan has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Baisangur Susurkaev has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Baisangur Susurkaev has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Baisangur Susurkaev has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Baisangur Susurkaev

Red Corner

Eric Nolan

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+610

(14%)

1559

Elo

1462

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Baisangur SusurkaevW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eric McConico · Nov 25

SUBvs Djorden Santos · May 26

latest

Eric Nolan

oldest →

DECvs Farman Hasanov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Baisangur SusurkaevMetricEric Nolan

5.74

Strikes / min

3.14

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

5.13

58%

Strike defense

41%

2.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

71%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap-1.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Baisangur SusurkaevEric Nolan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Baisangur Susurkaev(3 fights)Eric Nolan(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.1|Blue -97.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Baisangur SusurkaevTargetEric Nolan

By target zone

50% acc · 64%

Head

33% acc · 77%

70% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 23%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

52% acc · 61%

Distance

38% acc · 82%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

44% acc · 18%

71% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Baisangur Susurkaev rounds

even

Eric Nolan rounds

Round 1Baisangur Susurkaev edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:55

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Baisangur Susurkaev edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:24

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 62

Sig Strikes

22 / 56

59.5%

Sig Str %

46.5%

59 / 89

Total Strikes

24 / 58

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

28%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:19

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eric Nolan	18 / 49	20 / 51	0 / 1	0
1	Baisangur Susurkaev	19 / 37	28 / 48	2 / 7	0
2	Eric Nolan	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Baisangur Susurkaev	17 / 25	31 / 41	0 / 0	1

Baisangur Susurkaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3

Eric Nolan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2