Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Pat Sabatini has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tucker Lutz has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Pat SabatiniW4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23W
SUBvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 24W
vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25W
vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25W
DECvs William Gomis · May 26 Tucker LutzL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23L
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Pat SabatiniMetricTucker Lutz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Pat SabatiniTucker Lutz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Pat Sabatini(10 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +81.4|Blue -81.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Pat SabatiniTargetTucker Lutz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control3:35
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 2Pat Sabatini edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control4:40
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Pat Sabatini edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:40
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
