Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francis Carmont has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
- Francis Carmont has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francis CarmontL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14 Tom Lawlor
oldest →L
SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francis CarmontMetricTom Lawlor
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francis CarmontTom Lawlor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francis Carmont(9 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -137.0|Blue +137.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -57.0|Blue +57.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francis CarmontTargetTom Lawlor
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Francis Carmont edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:54
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:19Control
Round 2Tom Lawlor edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:35
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:30Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:03
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:59Control
