Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marcin Tybura has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fabricio Werdum
oldest →L
vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20 Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fabricio WerdumMetricMarcin Tybura
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Fabricio WerdumMarcin Tybura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.9|Blue +2.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Fabricio WerdumTargetMarcin Tybura
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control1:02
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns0
Control0:28
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:31
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 5Marcin Tybura edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
