Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matthew Lopez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14 Matthew LopezL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16W
KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17L
KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricMatthew Lopez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.55Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mitch GagnonMatthew Lopez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +3.3|Blue -3.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +571.0|Blue -571.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mitch GagnonTargetMatthew Lopez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control1:22
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:18Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Matthew Lopez edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:22
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:00Control
Round 3Matthew Lopez edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:19
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
