Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Lorenz Larkin has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CamozziL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Vitor Miranda · May 16L
SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16L
vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16L
vs Trevor Smith · May 17 Lorenz LarkinW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs John Howard · Jan 15W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CamozziMetricLorenz Larkin
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris CamozziLorenz Larkin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Camozzi(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -130.1|Blue +130.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris CamozziTargetLorenz Larkin
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Camozzi edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Chris Camozzi edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:29
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:19
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
