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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kody Steele won · Submission R1
Elo1496
Dom Mar Fan
Elo1516

Dom Mar FanvsKody SteeleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia

Official fight result

Kody Steele won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:56

Style matchupDom Mar Fan: Well-roundedvsKody Steele: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Dom Mar Fan wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Kody Steele wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kody Steele has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Dom Mar Fan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dom Mar Fan
Red Corner
VS
Kody Steele
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1496
Elo
1516
26
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dom Mar Fan
oldest →
W
vs Sangwook Kim · Jan 26
latest
Kody Steele
oldest →
L
vs Rongzhu · Feb 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dom Mar FanMetricKody Steele
3.43
Strikes / min
3.85
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
6.20
44%
Strike defense
52%
1.84
TDs / 15 min
1.07
62%
Takedown defense
100%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap-2.35
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Dom Mar Fan(2 fights)Kody Steele(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -20.8|Blue +20.8
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -357.0|Blue +357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Dom Mar Fan

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights1

Kody Steele

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1