Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Eddie Wineland has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Eddie WinelandL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18W
KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20L
KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22 John Castaneda
oldest →W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25D
DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Eddie WinelandMetricJohn Castaneda
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Eddie WinelandJohn Castaneda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Eddie Wineland(10 fights)John Castaneda(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -67.4|Blue +67.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Eddie WinelandTargetJohn Castaneda
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:12
Knockdowns0
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
