Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aljamain Sterling has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian Ortega
oldest →W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24 Aljamain Sterling
oldest →W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricAljamain Sterling
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.54Δ 4.65 — meaningful gap+2.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian OrtegaAljamain Sterling
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -35.5|Blue +35.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian OrtegaTargetAljamain Sterling
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
5
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:36Control
Round 5Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:06
24Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
