Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luke Riley is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Bogdan Grad has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Luke Riley has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Bogdan Grad has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bogdan Grad
oldest →W
KOvs Lucas Alexander · Feb 25L
vs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 25 Luke RileyW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Michael Aswell Jr. · Mar 26W
KOvs Kai Kamaka III · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bogdan GradMetricLuke Riley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.00Δ 3.24 — meaningful gap+2.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bogdan GradLuke Riley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bogdan Grad(3 fights)Luke Riley(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -88.0|Blue +88.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bogdan GradTargetLuke Riley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Bogdan Grad edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns4
Control3:55
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Luke Riley edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
1Knockdowns
