Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Tucker Lutz has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tucker Lutz has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel PinedaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20L
vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24 Tucker LutzL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21L
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel PinedaMetricTucker Lutz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Daniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Pineda(10 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +24.3|Blue -24.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +343.0|Blue -343.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Daniel PinedaTargetTucker Lutz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:50
Knockdowns1
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Daniel Pineda edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control1:30
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
