Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Bontorin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt SchnellL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26 Rogerio BontorinL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19W
KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21L
vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SchnellMetricRogerio Bontorin
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt SchnellRogerio Bontorin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Schnell(10 fights)Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -29.4|Blue +29.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +45.0|Blue -45.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt SchnellTargetRogerio Bontorin
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Schnell edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Matt Schnell edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rogerio Bontorin edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
31Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:18Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
