Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernie Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rinya Nakamura has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rinya Nakamura has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya Nakamura
oldest →W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25W
KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25 Fernie GarciaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Journey Newson · May 22L
vs Brady Hiestand · Nov 22L
KOvs Hyder Amil · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricFernie Garcia
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.55Δ 3.30 — meaningful gap-1.75
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rinya NakamuraFernie Garcia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Fernie Garcia(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +34.7|Blue -34.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rinya NakamuraTargetFernie Garcia
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control3:55
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:31
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control3:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
