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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Steve Erceg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1463

Elo1498

David DvorakvsSteve ErcegUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Steve Erceg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDavid Dvorak: Well-roundedvsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Erceg at +245 American odds

+$245 profit

$345 total returned

Tale of the Tape

David Dvorak

Red Corner

Steve Erceg

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1463

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David DvorakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Sep 20

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · May 21

vs Matheus Nicolau · Mar 22

vs Manel Kape · Dec 22

latest

Steve Erceg

oldest →

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David DvorakMetricSteve Erceg

3.48

Strikes / min

4.64

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

59%

Strike defense

55%

0.58

TDs / 15 min

1.13

70%

Takedown defense

67%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David DvorakSteve Erceg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Dvorak(6 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.8|Blue +34.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David DvorakTargetSteve Erceg

By target zone

34% acc · 49%

Head

28% acc · 52%

53% acc · 19%

Body

62% acc · 30%

94% acc · 32%

Leg

77% acc · 19%

By position

45% acc · 87%

Distance

35% acc · 85%

57% acc · 8%

Clinch

88% acc · 13%

60% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Dvorak rounds

even

Steve Erceg rounds

Round 1David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:10

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:47

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 114

Sig Strikes

54 / 140

47%

Sig Str %

41%

56 / 117

Total Strikes

56 / 142

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 4

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steve Erceg	16 / 56	16 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	David Dvorak	20 / 46	20 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Steve Erceg	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 1	1
2	David Dvorak	23 / 49	23 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Steve Erceg	20 / 33	22 / 35	3 / 3	0
3	David Dvorak	10 / 19	13 / 22	1 / 3	0

David Dvorak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9