Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1356

Francisco TrinaldovsAkbarh ArreolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Trinaldo has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Akbarh Arreola

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1496

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Akbarh Arreola

oldest →

DECvs Tiago Trator · Jul 14

SUBvs Yves Edwards · Nov 14

KOvs Jake Matthews · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricAkbarh Arreola

3.13

Strikes / min

2.32

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

60%

Strike defense

56%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.07

60%

Takedown defense

33%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoAkbarh Arreola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Akbarh Arreola(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.8|Blue -140.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetAkbarh Arreola

By target zone

28% acc · 74%

Head

33% acc · 50%

86% acc · 15%

Body

64% acc · 21%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

83% acc · 29%

By position

27% acc · 49%

Distance

42% acc · 82%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

43% acc · 44%

Ground

71% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Akbarh Arreola rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:53

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:18

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:06

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 115

Sig Strikes

34 / 74

35.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

91 / 169

Total Strikes

82 / 127

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Akbarh Arreola	6 / 7	18 / 21	0 / 0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	7 / 20	28 / 43	1 / 1
2	Akbarh Arreola	12 / 24	35 / 49	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	13 / 30	33 / 50	1 / 1
3	Akbarh Arreola	16 / 43	29 / 57	0 / 0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	19 / 65	30 / 76	1 / 1

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Akbarh Arreola

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4