Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Olivier Aubin-MercierL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17W
KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19 Gilbert BurnsL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25L
KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Olivier Aubin-MercierMetricGilbert Burns
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Olivier Aubin-MercierGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -90.9|Blue +90.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Olivier Aubin-MercierTargetGilbert Burns
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds
Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:16Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:18
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:26
35Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
