Flyweight

3 Rounds

Victor Altamirano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1485

Victor AltamiranovsVinicius SalvadorUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Victor Altamirano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVictor Altamirano: WrestlervsVinicius Salvador: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Victor Altamirano wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Victor Altamirano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Altamirano at -104 American odds

+$96 profit

$196 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Victor Altamirano enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vinicius Salvador has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Altamirano (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Victor Altamirano

Red Corner

Vinicius Salvador

Blue Corner

-104

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1490

Elo

1485

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victor AltamiranoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Feb 22

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Aug 22

vs Tim Elliott · Jun 23

vs Felipe dos Santos · Feb 24

vs Daniel Barez · Sep 24

latest

Vinicius SalvadorL2 streak

oldest →

vs CJ Vergara · Jul 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victor AltamiranoMetricVinicius Salvador

4.58

Strikes / min

5.48

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

6.50

53%

Strike defense

48%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

0.36

63%

Takedown defense

86%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victor AltamiranoVinicius Salvador

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victor Altamirano(6 fights)Vinicius Salvador(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.8|Blue -4.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victor AltamiranoTargetVinicius Salvador

By target zone

41% acc · 45%

Head

25% acc · 55%

52% acc · 23%

Body

71% acc · 32%

91% acc · 32%

Leg

86% acc · 13%

By position

51% acc · 87%

Distance

33% acc · 83%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

57% acc · 9%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victor Altamirano rounds

even

Vinicius Salvador rounds

Round 1Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:28

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vinicius Salvador edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:33

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control2:03

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 118

Sig Strikes

47 / 130

52.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

109 / 171

Total Strikes

83 / 168

3 / 22

TDs

1 / 6

10.7%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

5:04

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinicius Salvador	11 / 33	27 / 49	0 / 1
1	Victor Altamirano	16 / 29	39 / 54	1 / 6
2	Vinicius Salvador	24 / 56	24 / 57	1 / 5
2	Victor Altamirano	24 / 42	33 / 54	0 / 4
3	Vinicius Salvador	12 / 41	32 / 62	0 / 0
3	Victor Altamirano	22 / 47	37 / 63	2 / 12

Victor Altamirano

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Vinicius Salvador

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3