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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Iasmin Lucindo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1525

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsIasmin LucindoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Iasmin Lucindo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsIasmin Lucindo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Iasmin Lucindo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iasmin Lucindo at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Iasmin Lucindo

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-355

(78%)

1483

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL2 streak

oldest →

vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Iasmin Lucindo

oldest →

vs Brogan Walker · Apr 23

SUBvs Polyana Viana · Aug 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Oct 24

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 25

vs Angela Hill · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricIasmin Lucindo

5.54

Strikes / min

3.22

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

56%

Strike defense

62%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

2.28

74%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczIasmin Lucindo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Iasmin Lucindo(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.3|Blue +41.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetIasmin Lucindo

By target zone

23% acc · 40%

Head

53% acc · 64%

68% acc · 36%

Body

82% acc · 28%

63% acc · 24%

Leg

88% acc · 8%

By position

37% acc · 95%

Distance

54% acc · 69%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

72% acc · 16%

Ground

100% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Iasmin Lucindo rounds

Round 1Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 2Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 111

Sig Strikes

83 / 136

36%

Sig Str %

64%

47 / 119

Total Strikes

91 / 144

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Iasmin Lucindo	25 / 36	31 / 42	1 / 3
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	7 / 18	8 / 19	0 / 2
2	Iasmin Lucindo	38 / 72	38 / 72	0 / 0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	26 / 61	26 / 61	0 / 0
3	Iasmin Lucindo	20 / 28	22 / 30	1 / 3
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	9 / 32	13 / 39	0 / 0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Iasmin Lucindo

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7