Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16 Rashad EvansL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan BaderMetricRashad Evans
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.43Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan BaderRashad Evans
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Rashad Evans(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +124.9|Blue -124.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -434.0|Blue +434.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan BaderTargetRashad Evans
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:03
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:54
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:06
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
