Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Scoggins has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin ScogginsL3 streak
oldest →W
DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18 Dustin Ortiz
oldest →L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin ScogginsMetricDustin Ortiz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.40evenly matched on net striking+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin ScogginsDustin Ortiz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Scoggins(9 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -125.1|Blue +125.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin ScogginsTargetDustin Ortiz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns3
Control2:11
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:12Control
Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:46
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:40Control
Round 3Justin Scoggins edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns2
Control1:44
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:31Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
