Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricNate Marquardt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kelvin GastelumNate Marquardt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +129.0|Blue -129.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kelvin GastelumTargetNate Marquardt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control0:51
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control2:48
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
