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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julio Arce won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1504

Elo1483

Julio ArcevsHerbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Saturday, March 30, 2024Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Julio Arce won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:00

Style matchupJulio Arce: Well-roundedvsHerbert Burns: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Julio Arce wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Julio Arce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julio Arce at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Herbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Julio Arce is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Herbert Burns has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Julio Arce has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Julio Arce

Red Corner

Herbert Burns

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1504

Elo

1483

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Julio Arce

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Nov 19

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Nov 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

latest

Herbert BurnsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20

SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20

KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Julio ArceMetricHerbert Burns

4.36

Strikes / min

1.86

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

5.17

68%

Strike defense

41%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

2.94

96%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31Δ 4.62 — meaningful gap-3.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Julio ArceHerbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Julio Arce(10 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.9|Blue -20.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Julio ArceTargetHerbert Burns

By target zone

29% acc · 66%

Head

20% acc · 60%

75% acc · 31%

Body

50% acc · 33%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

29% acc · 69%

Distance

24% acc · 87%

82% acc · 31%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Julio Arce rounds

even

Herbert Burns rounds

Round 1Herbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Julio Arce edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns2

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 79

Sig Strikes

15 / 57

36%

Sig Str %

24.5%

29 / 79

Total Strikes

20 / 63

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Herbert Burns	11 / 37	16 / 43	0 / 5
1	Julio Arce	10 / 38	10 / 38	0 / 1
2	Herbert Burns	4 / 20	4 / 20	0 / 1
2	Julio Arce	19 / 41	19 / 41	0 / 0

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Herbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6