Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Brock Lesnar has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Brock Lesnar threatens submissions; Cain Velasquez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Cain Velasquez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Brock Lesnar has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brock Lesnar
oldest →W
SUBvs Shane Carwin · Jul 10L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · Dec 11 Cain Velasquez
oldest →W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brock LesnarMetricCain Velasquez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.42Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap+4.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brock LesnarCain Velasquez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brock Lesnar(3 fights)Cain Velasquez(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -140.2|Blue +140.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brock LesnarTargetCain Velasquez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:17
Knockdowns0
31Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:43Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
