Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24 Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricColby Covington
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.91Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Warlley AlvesColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Warlley AlvesTargetColby Covington
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
