Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chico Camus has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chico Camus has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Dustin Pague has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PagueL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs John Albert · Dec 11W
SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12L
vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13L
KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13 Chico CamusL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Aug 13L
vs Chris Holdsworth · May 14W
vs Brad Pickett · Nov 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Jun 15L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Sep 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PagueMetricChico Camus
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.31Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin PagueChico Camus
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Pague(6 fights)Chico Camus(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.8|Blue +2.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin PagueTargetChico Camus
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chico Camus edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:06Control
Round 2Chico Camus edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control0:24
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:47Control
Round 3Chico Camus edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control1:52
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
