Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Benavidez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1397

Elo1385

Joseph BenavidezvsJussier FormigaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Joseph Benavidez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:07

Model Prediction: Joseph Benavidez wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Joseph Benavidez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Benavidez at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez

Red Corner

Jussier Formiga

Blue Corner

-720

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+580

(15%)

1397

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joseph BenavidezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19

KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20

vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21

latest

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joseph BenavidezMetricJussier Formiga

3.52

Strikes / min

1.42

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

61%

Strike defense

64%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.82

62%

Takedown defense

87%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joseph BenavidezJussier Formiga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)Jussier Formiga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.1|Blue -12.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joseph BenavidezTargetJussier Formiga

By target zone

33% acc · 65%

Head

33% acc · 83%

57% acc · 20%

Body

33% acc · 17%

60% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 80%

Distance

29% acc · 83%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joseph Benavidez rounds

even

Jussier Formiga rounds

Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 52

Sig Strikes

6 / 18

38%

Sig Str %

33%

20 / 52

Total Strikes

6 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jussier Formiga	6 / 18	6 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Joseph Benavidez	20 / 52	20 / 52	0 / 0	0

Joseph Benavidez

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights21

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16