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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1527
Grant Dawson
Elo1489
Diego Ferreira editorial illustration

Grant DawsonvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Grant Dawson has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Diego Ferreira has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson
Red Corner
VS
Diego Ferreira
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1527
Elo
1489
32
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson
oldest →
L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23
W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24
W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26
latest
Diego Ferreira
oldest →
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21
W
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23
W
KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24
L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricDiego Ferreira
3.14
Strikes / min
4.70
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.46
44%
Strike defense
55%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
0.82
66%
Takedown defense
57%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1637 vs 1590Strikes3.2 vs 4.7Takedowns3.8 vs 0.8Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.60Form0.7 vs 0.8
Grant DawsonDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Grant Dawson(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +38.5|Blue -38.5
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

51
56% acc · 91%
Head
31
65% acc · 76%
3
60% acc · 5%
Body
6
67% acc · 15%
2
100% acc · 4%
Leg
4
100% acc · 10%

By position

19
40% acc · 34%
Distance
31
61% acc · 76%
7
88% acc · 13%
Clinch
6
100% acc · 15%
30
70% acc · 54%
Ground
4
100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Grant Dawson rounds
0
even
0
Diego Ferreira rounds
Round 1Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns3
Control3:11
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control3:44
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control3:55
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
56 / 98
Sig Strikes
41 / 61
56.7%
Sig Str %
68%
195 / 269
Total Strikes
84 / 113
6 / 11
TDs
0 / 0
53.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:50
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Ferreira11 / 1627 / 340 / 00
1Grant Dawson21 / 3143 / 543 / 50
2Diego Ferreira17 / 2829 / 430 / 00
2Grant Dawson21 / 3964 / 901 / 20
3Diego Ferreira13 / 1728 / 360 / 00
3Grant Dawson14 / 2888 / 1252 / 40

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17