Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackens Semerzier threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alex Caceres has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24 Mackens Semerzier
oldest →L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricMackens Semerzier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-0.57
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Mackens Semerzier(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +9.6|Blue -9.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex CaceresTargetMackens Semerzier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Mackens Semerzier rounds
Round 1Mackens Semerzier edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:52Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
