Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Mitch Gagnon has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Bryan Caraway has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18 Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan CarawayMetricMitch Gagnon
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.08Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bryan CarawayMitch Gagnon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.5|Blue +3.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bryan CarawayTargetMitch Gagnon
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control1:07
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:03Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control3:03
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control1:09
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
